Wednesday, 20 February 2008

2005_11_01_archive



Global Warming and the Future

Eric write, It seems so strange/absurd, though, that most Newstrolls

regulars never could "get it" despite all the evidence of the global

warming urgency posted here over the years. (And still don't get it,

now.) Then again, maybe it was too late ten years ago, and we just

didn't realize it. All this debate and bickering over the years about

global warming may have all been for naught.

Well with those sentences you have just moved light-years.

I don't think it's the case that none of us 'get it'. I think we all

get it, all except the lunatic anymice dissenters.

Where does that leave us?

First, we have some time. Even a dramatic climate change is going to

take a lifetime. What we're trying to plan for is for our descendents,

not ourselves. Sure, there will be disruptions in our lifetimes, but

certainly no more dramatic than in the last century. Which beings us

to...

Second, there will be casualties. Most likely they won't be us;

casualties will be for the most part the poor and for the most part in

the developing world. We can't change that, we can, at best, mitigate

the suffering and plan to make our own actions less destructive than

those of our predecessors, the harvest of which we are reaping in

these unavoidable deaths today. But we have, at least, some room. And

it gives us some directionality toward our efforts. Specifically...

Third, people who are well educated and living in a reasonably stable

society should be able to survive. The big danger in changing

conditions is ignorance; the second big danger is civil strife. People

can live on a lot less, and in much worse conditions, than we

currently do, and given the chance, most people will survive climate

change. That said...

Fourth, a lot of the ecosystem won't. We are already in a situation

where fish stocks have been depleted, forests are denuded,

desertification is rampant. The world will survive - it has survived

mass extinctions on numerous occasions before. The loss of species is,

at heart, a human problem - not because we're all touchy feely, but

because we need those species to survive. We will have to develop

alternatives and it's going to be a biotechnical race, but again, we

have time, if we keep our act together.

These are hard realities. But they point to a strategy...

First, don't panic. It's a serious situation, but we can deal with it.

We have a lot more to fear from each other than we do from climate

change. Cooler heads, not the panic-stricken, will prevail.

Second, the developing world must stand on its own. For us, living in

western democracies, that means easing and eliminating our dependence

on these countries. The exploitation has to end - the cheap imports

and low-cost labour will end either way, and we stand a better chance

of survival as a planet if these nations help themselves rather than

imploding.

Third, help people help themselves. Don't save people, empower them.

Educated people will for the most part work together because they know

their odds of survival and a decent life are improved. People who live

in open, democratic, and supportive societies will succeed, and so

empowered, people will tend to choose this form of organization.

People who live in dictatorships will die in increasing numbers as

things get worse. The more people we can empower, the more people we

can save. It's that simple.

Fourth, we press ahead with research and development across the board

- our very existence will depend on it. There will be some things we

cannot solve - maybe a strain of avian flu, maybe key shortage - but

for each problem we solve, more people will be saved. Things like

space exploration, biosphere, cloning, artifical intelligence, etc.,

are not long-shots. They are best bets.

What does that mean for each of us as individuals?

First, don't jump to easy solutions, don't focus on blame and

scapegoating, don't zone out and join a cult - don't lose your head,

in other words. People who do not treat this as a complex long-term

problem endanger not only themselves but also the others they come

into contact with. It is one thing to oppose people who are making

this worse - make make no bones about it, the rational will begin to

push back against the superstitious and irrational with increasing

force as the stakes get higher. It's quite another to be the one whose

mad throes are threatening to sink the whole boat.

Second, learn to live with less. People who can live with less can not

only better survive hardship, they are also more independent and able

to resist threats and actions by the lass stable elements of society.

If you find yourself voting or acting in such a way as to defend your

possessions, merely for the sake of having possessions, you are being

manipulated into the danger zone. Living with less also, collectively,

puts less strain on our carrying capacity, which will be seriously

stretched in the years to come.

Third, get smarter. Not simply smarter in the sense that you know more

things (though it never hurts to hone a craft or a skill) but in the

sense that you can understand and read the signs better. People who

ran inland when the sea receeded survived the Tsunami; people who

evacuated New Orleans ahead of Katrina lived (and people who had

evacuation and accomodation planned ahead of time avoided the worst of

it).

Fourth, when it comes to knowledge and research, take the gloves off

and get to work. This means not only doing the front-line development,

but in doing everything that can be done to foster greater social

knowledge, including open content and open source, the free flow of

ideas, civil liberties, and more. Focus your efforts on building an

adaptive, learning and knowing society, and don't be distracted by

mere short-term (and often exploitive) economic gain.

OK, this isn't everything. But it's a plan. A starting point. And in

my view, even if some of the details are wrong, something like this is

our best - and possibly our only - means of survival.

Posted by Downes at 6:18 PM 2 comments Links to this post

Standing Alone

I find myself standing alone a lot, lost in my own thoughts, and it

from time to time crosses my mind: what do great thinkers think about

when they stand alone?

Ludwig Wittgenstein, for example: a former prisoner of war, master

logician and theorist of language (whose mere thoughts would likely

have been themselves a masterpiece, were they to be captured and

printed), possibly gay (and who would have witnessed the destruction

of colleague Alan Turing from close range). What would go through his

mind? When he stood alone and looked at a tree or a squirrel or the

rowers on the canal, what questions would go through his mind?

Or in a similar vein, Albert Einstein, famous for his 'though

experiments' regarding the nature of the speed of light - these most

probably would have occupied him as we waited for the bus or taxi, or

stood in line at the bank. While the rest of us think about what we're

having for supper or whether the books will balance at the end of the

week, what would einstein be thinking about?

Do they ponder their place in history? Run through mathematical

equations? Write their forthcoming texts in their head? Or do they

empty themselves of thought, achieving peace through satori? When

Bertrand Russell went to the bathroom (presumably alone) did he review

in his mind the great discussions of the past, did he ponder his next

move in the interminable discussion with Whitehead?

Here's what I think: that they thought of all these things, and more,

their personal thoughts a vivid mosaic of abstract expressionism,

formulae and calculations, internal dialogues, topics randing from the

abstruse to the mundane. That they were, first and foremost, human

beings, and when alone with their thoughts must need have dealt with

their very human condition.

And that there is a time when such minds, when they stand alone, speak

to and are accountable only to themselves, when they think about what

is good, and right, and important.

This I think accounts for the fact that the vast majority of these

great thinkers - all of them, I think - eventually evolved into what

is oft-times thought of as a 'radical' philosophy. Because when a

great mind turns only to itself for counsel, certain things emerge as

self-evident: the need for peace in the world, the imperative to

reduce suffering, the fundamental humanity of all who walk this

planet, the sameness that defines each of us, from the greatest

thinker to the tiniest baby. Great thinkers understand best and most

of all, I think, how little they differ from those assigned a more

mundane place in history, and would be accutely aware of the accident

and happenstance that put themselves in a position to be, in fact,

great thinkers.

It is when you think that you are (or should be) special or privileged

that you are willing to tolerate the inequities and inhumanities

necessary to place you in such a position; but when you are special or

privileged, through your own merit and through the twists and turns of

history, you understand that the inequalities and inhumanities that

create such privilege are intolerable.

Because, when you have only yourself to account for, when you see only

yourself in the mirror, then awareness or tolerance of inequities or

inhumanities cut like a knife. They diminish you, devalue everything

you believe and have worked for, make you less of a person.

Standing alone, the only merit stems what what you've become, and none


No comments: